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In this super-sized episode of Commitment Matters, Mary (assisted by Grace and Shelby) speaks with Dr. Ted C. Jones, Chief Economist – Senior Vice President at Stewart Title Guaranty Company. You can reach Ted by email at TEJONES@stewart.com, read his blog at Blog.Stewart.com or follow him on Twitter where his handle is @DrTCJ.
During their conversation, Mary or Ted mentioned:
- “History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes,” is a quote commonly attributed to Mark Twain. Here’s more on that mystery.
- Ted accurately forecasted an increase in home sales in 2020 based on how society reacted after 9/11.
- Through the pandemic, we saw the lowest interest rates in history.
- Meet Ted’s heroes: Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin and Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell.
- Here’s an overview of the 2008 housing bubble which burst, partly due to liar loans.
- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac offered extended forbearance options to those affected by COVID-19.
- The median home price increased by 19.1% last year.
- Ted mentions the Small Business Paycheck Protection Plan.
- In just two months of the pandemic, Americans lost 22.4 million jobs in 2020 in contrast to the 8 million lost over 24 months during the recession of the early 2000’s. Here’s the most recent report on employment from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Ted offered an overview of GDP forecasts from a number of trusted sources, including Wells Fargo, The Conference Board, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Kiplinger, Federal Reserve Bank, and Fannie Mae.
- COVID-19 Federal Unemployment Benefits has led to a lack of willing workers to fill the 8.1 million open jobs which has caused a number of states to opt out of the funding.
- RedFin reports bidding competitions on 63% of housing transactions.
- Supply chain issues and shortages have indeed led to buy-back programs and higher-priced used cars. Sounds like Ted’s dad isn’t alone in receiving an offer from his dealer!
- Ted mentions reviewing President Biden’s plan to raise taxes.
- Here’s more on the rise in gasoline prices.
- 2019 interest rates on Treasury Bonds sat at 0.52% in August of 2019 but have risen to 1.62%, a 200% increase on new debt. Still, it’s nowhere near the 30-year residential mortgage rates from the early 1980’s.
- Ted mentions his blog article forecasting population growth.
- Need a refresher on Rip Van Winkle?
- Fannie Mae and MBA forecast existing home sales and median prices to rise.
- Here’s the article from the National Association of Home Builders breaking down the skyrocketing costs of materials and its effect on new home costs. Plus, the shortage of electricians is resulting in tremendous salary increases for the profession.
- Speaking of shortages…have you tried to purchase an appliance lately?
- Read more about Biden’s Capital Gains Tax plan and the Net Investment Income Tax. Then, The Washington Post offers this insight into the ability to apply this increase retroactively.
- Wondering which states don’t have state income tax?
- Retail and Office Space vacancy rates are soaring.
- Here’s more on the Salesforce Tower and its new work from home policy.
- Ted cites a survey by S&P500 staffing firm Robert Half stating 1 in 3 people would rather look for a new job than return to the office full time, and he mentions in the episode that employers are considering leveling remote worker salaries.
- Mary and Ted discussed the volatility of the oil industry. For more on this, check out this 70 Year Historical Chart of Crude Oil Prices and this chart of Oil Production.
- During their discussion, Mary briefly mentioned driverless tractor trailers taking to the road.
- Want to learn more about Universal Basic Income?
- Ted mentioned living in New Zealand in 1981. Learn more about its money and taxation. Plus, you can read about employer redundancy payments too.
- Here’s Ted’s tweet about converting office buildings to condos.
- This April 15, 2021 Wall Street Journal article expands on the subject of housing shortages.
- As Ted mentioned, Amazon is snapping up regional shopping centers to convert them into industrial distribution centers.
- Here’s an update on bipartisanship regarding infrastructure plans.
- Read about the effects of a $15 minimum wage.
- It seems self-service restaurant kiosks are taking over at more and more airports.
- Mary mentioned lucrative bonuses and incentives for typically low-wage jobs in rural Illinois. Here’s an article on the struggle to fill open positions.
- As Ted mentions, supply and demand determine price and quantity.
- Read about how the U.S. is experiencing the lowest foreclosure rates in decades.
- Want to learn more about real estate and other undervalued stocks for 2021.
- “Are we in a housing bubble?” Mary asked. Ted (and Forbes) say no.
- Here’s more on Mary’s Keynesian approach to economics.
- It was definitely news worthy when the Houston Association of Realtors created the first consumer-facing website.
- Ted mentions the elimination of 1031 Exchanges affecting real estate investments.
- Here’s are specifics on the Green New Deal.
- Want to read more about the Australian study on the earth’s axis?
- Read more about the benefits of hydropower, and the environmental impacts of natural gas. Plus, here’s an opinion on what it would take to beat the Paris climate targets.
- Get to know the Manhattan Institute and read its report on the “New Energy Economy.”
- Here’s more information on Albert Betz, the German physicist for whom Betz’s law is named. And, here’s more on the Shockley-Quiesser limit, also mentioned in this episode.
- Ted encourages all title professionals to join their state land title association and ALTA.
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